Archive for July, 2009

What might affect exchange rates today

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UK – 9.30 Bank of England munites released from it’s most recent meeting.

UK – 11.00 CBI (Confederation of British Inustry) industrial trends survey

CAD – 13.30 Retail sales figures released

US / EUR – 21.00 ECB member Noyer speaks in Philadelphia

Also the Bank of England is expected to purchase £2.25bn of gilts sometime tody

Is Quantitative easing going to help anybody?

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This theory of “printing money” to create money out of thin air may be physically putting money into the economy but monetary changes can take time to work through the economy.   It may cause another boom a year down the line followed by another crash as current.  Japan tried it to no avail.  Quantitative easy is so difficult to get right.  Have the Government made the right decision?  At the right time?  Do the right extent?  We shall have to wait and see. 

Currency Exchange & the UK Deficit

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This morning saw the release of some horrific public sector borrowing figures. The possibility of having our triple A status downgraded must still remain and becomes more likely with figures like these. It is no real surprise the pound dropped against every major currency this morning falling towards a drop of 1% percent by midday against some of the currencies. If a downgrade doesn’t cripple the nation then the Swine may finish the job as forecasts point towards a steep decline in GDP to -7%.

UK Tourism could be on the rise.

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With Sterling unlikely to rise against the Euro anytime soon, UK holiday makers look set to take their holidays on British shores this summer.   A low rate of 1.161 Euros to Sterling from Mid July 2009 could lead to summer breaks abroad, being taken in the UK as consumers seek to save money during the recession. 

This trend, if things continue, is likely to aid the UK Tourism industry and help to put money back into the economy which it so badly needs.  Locations such as Bournemouth and Brighton will be expecting large numbers of UK based tourists, many from London due to easy access via the M3 and M23 respectively.

This addition to the UK economy may be significant when it comes to the overall recovery of the financial crisis and possibly reduce the lengthy amount of time associated with it.

UK economy shrinking more than first thought

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It has been predicted that the UK economy will shrink by 4.5% this year, well in excess of the official Government figure of 3.5% and a figure that would be the single biggest fall since 1945.

The risk of the current financial crisis deepening is still concerning for the UK economy and this has caused the Pound to lose ground recently against both the Euro and the Dollar.

Any further signs of economic doom and gloom could see these recent losses be quickly added to so it may be worth speaking to your currency broker early this week and seriously consider the benefits of a forward contract.