Archive for July, 2009

Exchange rate forecast

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The market seems to be waiting for confirmation as to whether or not the Bank of England will continue it’s programme of quantitative easing.

Sterling seemed to gain strength after the MPC interest rate decision last week when it was announced there would be no increase to the £125 billion worth of “printed money”. But this positivity seemed to fall away fall away Wednesday when BofE Deputy Governor Charles Bean stressed that the bank was not ending the programme.

Keep an eye out for any more news regarding this situation as it is having a major influence on Sterling adn the direction of exchange rates.

Will the ‘W’ recession move exchange rates?

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Morning everybody,

I keep getting asked by my clients about the ‘W shaped’ or ‘double dip’ recession at the moment .  It is a bit of a new theory and something that the press have got hold of in recent weeks.  The idea is based on the economy recovering a little, then hitting another down turn, before making a longer term recovery.

It’s really difficult at the moment to predict if or when we may see this downturn, but if we do then we may well see some volatility on the market.  I’d be keen to hear other people’s views and thought on another smaller down turn?  I know there’s a lot of speculation about the housing market (as always) and that could be something that helps/hinders recovery for us in the UK.

Let me know your thoughts!

Eurobound

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The Euro has become range bound between 1.4100-1.4050 after giving back some of its gains from yesterday. Forex traders are awaiting the next significant news event to determine sentiment as the global economic outlook has become cloudy.

Sterling to be hit swine flu

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I have been looking at ther effect of swine flu on buying euros and I think if the UK is hit really badly by this pandemic then the value of sterling may drop as the economy gets affected and people get scared. So if I was buying dollars or buying euros at the moment I would be probably trying to do it quite quickly.

Banking Sector Under Pressure

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It is expected that a report released today by the ex-city regulator Sir David Walker is going to scrutinise the way in which the boards of the major banks have performed in the lead up to and during the credit crunch. Should the report highlight ineffciencies in the banking system and the management of the major banking institutions then we could see the Pound weaken against a number of major currencies.

 

Meanwhile, in the States it appears that another major US bank – CIT Bank is likely to fail. The bank specialise in providing credit for thousands of small and medium sized companies which could put more pressure on the US economy. So, it appears the global recession is far from over.