Archive for November, 2009

Currency Market Forecast

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The news in Dubai has still hit the currency market hard, as it’s been revealed that U.K. banks have invested heavily into the U.A.E. and potentially have exposed themselves to the downturn of Dubai World. At the height of trading on Thursday the Yen was at a 14 year high against the dollar, and is still currently trading at high levels, therefore now is a good a time as ever to trade JPY, however all other major currencies were hit by the news in Dubai.

During the early morning trading both Sterling and Euro have ‘opened in the red’ meaning that the exchange rates are falling, this is on the back of the negatives being experienced by the European Stock Markets. Meanwhile GBP & USD is trading at much better levels than what were seen on Friday so aside from all the negative news there has been some positive news for U.K. based individuals.

There are a number of data releases due to be released over the course of the next week which will have an impact on the currency market and therefore it is advisable to keep up to date with Currency Market movements and data releases. One hassle free way of doing this is to ask your currency broker.

Dubai Rocks the World

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Yesterday the FTSE 100 dropped 3 percent as the news hit that the investment company Dubai World has asked its creditors for an extension to repay its debts, for those readers who don’t know Dubai World manages and oversees a vast number of business projects and businesses for the Dubai Government, currently this debt stand at £35 Billion and the requested extension is until 2010.

Dubai World is seen as a key element in the rapid expansion of Dubai’s Economy, and many analysts are speculating that this will cause many of the British banks to become exposed to the debt problems in Dubai. This has the potential to make Sterling a very risky currency indeed, risk is not a word to be taken lightly when buying currency. Therefore in order to manage your risk, contact a currency broker.

Meanwhile if you purchase Japanese Yen then now is as good a time as ever to buy the currency, currently the JPY is trading at levels of around 80:1 on the Dollar, this is the highest level for 14 years. This spike could be short lived as the Japanese government are trying to force the exchange rates down as they feel this is bad for their economy.

In general this has been a bad week for Sterling and forcasted levels still show high levels of uncertainty.

Sterling Morning Movement

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Earlier morning has seen Sterling lose ground over the Euro and Dollar, losing two cents against the dollar and once cent against the Euro. On a £100,000 transfer this equates to a loss of almost €1000 and a loss of nearly $2000.

This movement has been attributed to U.K. GDP figures that were released yesterday, these figures came out slightly more positive than expected with initial estimates at 0.4%, and the actual figure was 0.3%. Usually data which comes out more positive than expected would cause positive currency market movement, however this data shows that the U.K. is still very much in a recession and therefore this is seen as a negative. The U.K. is the last remaining major country to still remain in a recession, which provides an overall negative outlook for the pound.

It has been announced this morning that the larger banks will have to disclose which employees receive over £1,000,000 per anum under recommendations published by Sir David Walker. The effect this could have is that some financial institutes will move out of the U.K. to protect this information. This in turn will affect the economy and is therefore seen as a negative for Sterling.

In this instance contacting a Currency Broker will help you decide when to conduct a currency transfer in order to ensure that you maximise your savings and receive the maximum amount of currency.

Sterling Morning Strength

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During the course of the morning we have seen slight Sterling strength, after German Consumer Confidence figures were released at 07:00 AM (GMT) this morning, as the figures that were released were less than expected.

However the key data for the Pound this morning will be the U.K.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. For those who don’t know GDP is a measure of the total value of goods and services produced by the U.K. This is seen as a clear reflection of the state of the economy, therefore if the data released shows that the economy is still deteriorating or the data is not as expected, this will cause severe fluctuations in exchange rates.

Meanwhile the Bank of England has revealed that it lent RBS and HBOS ‘secret loans’ totalling £61.6 Billion, this raises question about the integrity of our government and will reduce the public’s confidence in all apsects of politics.

Factors such as those discussed here will have a considerable affect on the currency market; therefore as is often the case in life, it benefits to pursue the advice of a professional within the field.

In terms of buying foreign currency a currency broker would be the best source of information about the currency market.

The Currency Market

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Sterling has experienced gradual gains in the last few weeks, however yesterday, GBP lost ground against the entire spectrum of major currencies; The Euro, Us Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

One explanation of this is what has been termed the ‘Currency Compass,’ which outlines the factors that influence the market. These four factors are: Political Certainty, Economic Stability, Acts of Terror and Acts of God. Currently three of these factors are influencing the Pound; the only one which isn’t being Acts of Terror.

Today there are a number of data releases that could impact the market; this could make the market especially volatile. In order to ensure you reduce the risk when transferring money abroad, contact an experienced currency specialist who will aid you through the process.

The most influential data release for the U.K. will be the mortgage approvals released today at 9:30AM. This will show how the housing sector is fairing in this economic crisis and if data is not as expected could impact Sterling Exchange Rates.