Currency Line» Aidan Meikle

Will the ‘W’ recession move exchange rates?

Aidan Meikle — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 09:44:26 +0000

Morning everybody,

I keep getting asked by my clients about the ‘W shaped’ or ‘double dip’ recession at the moment . It is a bit of a new theory and something that the press have got hold of in recent weeks. The idea is based on the economy recovering a little, then hitting another down turn, before making a longer term recovery.

It’s really difficult at the moment to predict if or when we may see this downturn, but if we do then we may well see some volatility on the market. I’d be keen to hear other people’s views and thought on another smaller down turn? I know there’s a lot of speculation about the housing market (as always) and that could be something that helps/hinders recovery for us in the UK.

Let me know your thoughts!

A good day for the Pound

Aidan Meikle — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 11:31:22 +0000

The pound is doing well against most currencies today. There was some positive house price data out overnight… that helped to start and then the IMF said the world economy is now recovering. Put the two together and you’ve got a bit of a spike for the pound! How long it will last is hard to tell, we’ve seen some really volatile trading over the last few days with swings (movement from high to low of the day) of well over a percent. It looks like timing is key at present.

Aidan Meikle

What Beryl Said…

Aidan Meikle — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:01:42 +0000

Well it has since been the budget report of 2009 and subsequently sterling has dropped like the proverbial stone.Alastair Darling says that Britain’s recession is worsening, but will start a recovery later this year; this is at odds with the IMF’s new forecasts that there will be a contraction of 4.1 percent this year and 0.4% next year.

This has lead sterling into a fragile place and it is currently at the lowest we’ve seen it for a while.

But what do you think? Will sterling recover any time soon? What does the budget mean for you?

Answers in a postcard…

(or just comment below, whichever is easiest)

Percy The Ponderer

Shock Horror

Aidan Meikle — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 11:22:08 +0000

Pound loses ground in morning trading.

Today has seen red screens all round, with sterling losing to most major currencies, mainly dollar which was falling towards the mid market rate of 1.45 and the Euro, which is around the low 1.12.

This is probably due to expected forecast changes by Alaistair Darling in regards to the budget release. The CBI has said however that the worst of the UK recession is over, but it has already been worse than expected. This has lead to the sterling weakness seen this morning.

Ah, look at the time. Lunch is calling me, I will see you soon!

Percy.

Is the Euro Done For?

Aidan Meikle — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 15:02:47 +0000

Is this the end?Well, no…but there is a smell in the air. I have heard off a little church mouse that traders are the most optimistic they’ve been in almost four years on the prospects of the pound against the euro.

The euro has been shot down by sterling today, losing about a percent.

How long could this continue for? Well, my guess is as good as yours. But from the look of things, sterling may hold its own for a little while. Church mice have been wrong in the past though so whether this spike is merely that, we’ll have to see.

over and out

Percy.

ps…look our for Eugene Euro, it was his birthday last week. He’s getting old!