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By Jonathan Watson

We have seen how the very talk of QE lately has weakened the dollar and sterling. This is particularly notable when we look at the euro rates against both currencies, which have climbed significantly.

Further Quantitative Easing looks inevitable in the US. Obama came to power on a huge fiscal stimulus program that now looks to have not been successful. Unemployment is still at 10% and has not improved massively since the stimulus measures.

Economic growth has not been particularly impressive either considering the measures and has certainly not improved the unemployment situation which is one of the issues Obama’s measures were to tackle.

I would expect the dollar to continue to weaken. But where are the funds going? Well as mentioned QE is also a threat to the UK. What we are seeing is a real strength for the euro, possibly on the back of the knowledge that for the time being no QE is likely in the eurozone. Stimulus measures have already been implemented and the immediate outlook while not hugely rosy with regard to the ever present debt crisis, is better than that offered by the UK and the US.

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By Jonathan Watson

Combined poor retail sales and an increased benefit claimant count for the UK are signs the UK is still experiencing a very weak recovery.

This has been reflected on the markets with a poor showing for sterling, particularly against the euro. The rate having been quite comfortable above 1.20 now appears to be very comfortable below it. There has been much improvement for the euro recently with debt fears seeming to be off the radar for the time being.

Markets react to sentiment and confidence and currently it appears the euro is benefitting from increased confidence. The euro has also benefitted from a stronger dollar in the last month as when the dollar trades strongly, weaker and more riskier currencies such as the euro can benefit as investors move funds to the alternative options to make a profit.

To avoid the volatility currency brokers like myself will seek to make trades on behalf of clients at the high points to maximise clients rates. So not only can we get clients much closer to the market rate, we seek to make sure that we are doing this at the most lucrative time.

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By Jonathan Watson

Figures from the International Labour Organisation and International Monetary Fund ssuggested that global unemployment is at 210 m. Considering that global population stands at some 6 billion, this only represents  3.5% of global employment and is not alone alarming.

The really interesting point however is that of this 75% is from what are termed ‘advanced’ economies and 25% of this extra 30m unemployed is in the US, the worlds largest economy.

The US economy needs to start driving again and with unemployment remaining at such a high level, the outlook is not good. where will the growth come from? The only meausures now available to stimulate growth are further quantitative easing since interest rates are at an all time low.

But where will this end? The idea is that pumping more money in stimulates growth, but the money has been pumped in for over two years. Where are the results?

The US, European and UK governemnts cannot afford to keep pumping funds into the economies. Once the market gets scared we could see runs on investments that may lead to another crisis. Could unemployment spell disaster? It very well could.

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By Jonathan Watson

Sterling has been performing quite poorly of late. A succession of poor data has seemed to imply the UK’s recovery is anything but certain.

We have seen  mortgage approvals and house prices drop and at the moment there is very little to get excited about.

The short term outlook is it will continue. It may be the case however that as other problems arise with the global recovery the UK will again be seen in a better light. As has happened with the slowdon in the US and debt fears in the eurozone.

One of the underlying positives for the UK is that whilst we are significantly in debt as a portion of GDP, the debt has a much longer maturity period. This means that the debt is due to be repaid over a much longer time compared to other countries. This gives us security in that our path to managing and paying off the debt is easier which gives us stability in steering our way through the recovery.

Other strengths include the pound being very weak in comparism to highs of the last two years, which helps boost our exports and makes us a more competitive nation. Whilst this affect will wear off as the currency strengthens, by the time the pound is trading at (if it does) higher levels  it would be because the recovery is underway and this advantage would no longer be so key (because other drivers in the economy such as retail and the domestic service sector would be in play) .

Such rosy times are apparently far off and we are still hearing talks of the global ‘double dip’ – boy, if I had a euro for everytime I heard that phrase!

Nevertheless in such uncertain times working alongisde a specialist currency broker can seriously aid the prospect of securing favourable rates. To find out more about how we can maximise your exchanges please fill in the contact us form and an experienced trader will be in touch.

By Jonathan Watson

Today we have the US Non – Farms Payroll, a measure of the number of people on the payrolls of non – agricultural businesses in the US. The actual data release measures the change and the figures can be very volatile, since the prediction is often way off the actual number due to the difficulties in compiling accurate figures.

I would expect today to be no different and the anticipated reduction in the figure from -131k to -105k should swing the market.

Sometimes when data releases are positive for the dollar we actually see the dollar weaken. This is because the US economy is seen as a marker for the global economy and if it is performing well, investors are encouraged to put their money into more risky assets.

Considering the volatility and fear still in the market and the release of such an important data release, we could well see some interesting activity today.

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